Thursday, July 20, 2017

July 5 tornadic potential



We began today in Grand Forks, ND, and we learned there were a few possible target areas to choose from for storms.  Our first possible area was in Central MN, but then we would need to contend with trees and hills.  Another area was all the way in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, but that would make for a long drive.  We set our sights on the area near Minot, ND.  Tornadic potential was the best we saw all week, and models were consistent with popping some beefy storms between 4-5 that evening.  All ingredients were in place for this to occur, but Bill was concerned about the strong cap.  After our briefing, we stopped at a grocery store to stock up on some goodies, and then we headed south on I-29 out of Grand Forks.  We took the Thompson, ND exit off the interstate and headed west on ND 15 into Northwood, ND.  Bill found a cozy cafe for us to have lunch, and then we headed to the local park to kill some time.  He did not want to go crazy with driving today, because the key would be patience.  We rounded up the guests and continued our westward trek on ND 15.  When we arrived in New Rockford, ND, we fueled the van and took the guests to a local cafe for ice cream.  At this point, the SPC issued an MD for our target area, but there was some very strong uncertainty in the text.  Watch probability was very low, and this was due to the strong cap.  From New Rockford, we took a quick jog south on US 281 and turned west onto ND 15 again.  We followed this road into Fessenden, ND, where we headed north on US 52 towards Harvey, ND.  After another pit stop, we continued on US 52 into Voltaire, ND.  We were going to continue to Minot, ND, but we were stuck behind a road painting crew.  Because of this, we turned our van around and headed back to Harvey.  We stopped briefly in Harvey, and we noticed a Cu field to our west that was not there before.  Could this be the moment we were hoping for, or was the atmosphere playing tricks on us?  Shortly after, a beefy updraft began to develop, and it turned into an okay storm.  We retraced our steps on US 52 by heading north until we arrived in Anamoose, ND.  From there, we blasted south on ND 14 into Denhoff, ND.  We had a brief photo stop here, as there was some lightning with this storm.  After our stop, we headed east on ND 200 into Hurdsfield, ND.  At this point, our storm was showing signs of weakening, so we stopped on a dirt road to watch the storm move away.  The sunset was ok, and it was neat seeing the storm building in the darkness.  Our home for the night was Steele, ND, after driving 411 miles.

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